Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 0.008088 0.009104 0.010216 0.011525 0.013027 0.014701 0.016714
2025-01-05 0.006714 0.008150 0.009860 0.012059 0.014832 0.018236 0.022766
2025-01-12 0.005587 0.007112 0.009031 0.011645 0.015151 0.019742 0.026297
2025-01-19 0.004827 0.006382 0.008424 0.011338 0.015450 0.021133 0.029737
2025-01-26 0.004349 0.005940 0.008110 0.011337 0.016099 0.023005 0.034036
2025-02-02 0.004120 0.005801 0.008176 0.011846 0.017498 0.026087 0.040542
2025-02-09 0.003772 0.005448 0.007888 0.011784 0.018010 0.027858 0.045212
2025-02-16 0.003523 0.005211 0.007739 0.011902 0.018792 0.030123 0.051000
2025-02-23 0.003241 0.004896 0.007434 0.011731 0.019068 0.031560 0.055525
2025-03-02 0.003066 0.004727 0.007338 0.011881 0.019885 0.034003 0.062228
2025-03-09 0.002862 0.004495 0.007117 0.011792 0.020267 0.035702 0.067753
2025-03-16 0.002607 0.004158 0.006695 0.011312 0.019887 0.035940 0.070386
2025-03-23 0.002444 0.003969 0.006517 0.011269 0.020348 0.037912 0.077112
2025-03-30 0.002389 0.003958 0.006644 0.011796 0.021966 0.042398 0.090144
2025-04-06 0.002194 0.003688 0.006293 0.011391 0.021703 0.043009 0.094549
2025-04-13 0.002034 0.003469 0.006013 0.011092 0.021614 0.043969 0.099941
2025-04-20 0.001930 0.003342 0.005892 0.011091 0.022138 0.046325 0.109189
2025-04-27 0.001900 0.003347 0.006014 0.011587 0.023780 0.051420 0.126475
2025-05-04 0.001803 0.003219 0.005873 0.011527 0.024192 0.053719 0.136817
2025-05-11 0.001734 0.003139 0.005818 0.011642 0.025011 0.057113 0.150936
2025-05-18 0.001639 0.003003 0.005641 0.011475 0.025152 0.058843 0.160605
2025-05-25 0.001584 0.002942 0.005609 0.011622 0.026055 0.062648 0.177398
2025-06-01 0.001510 0.002836 0.005478 0.011535 0.026380 0.064983 0.190147